Centre SIM: Hour-by-hour travel demand forecasting for mobile source emission estimation

نویسندگان

  • J. L. Kuhnau
  • K. G. Goulias
چکیده

Urban Airshed Models for estimating air pollution concentrations in a region require travel demand models that can produce hour-by-hour mobile source emission estimates. Regional simulation models of this type are currently created and tested in Australia, Europe, Japan, and the United States using a variety of theories, decision-making formalisms, and operational implementation methods. On one hand, these relatively new conceptualizations and models of transport systems have improved in a substantial way the realism of computerized decision support tools and have the potential of improving quantification of environmental impacts and transport management/control strategies. On the other hand, however, these systems require a substantial amount of data and understanding about behavior that very often are not readily available and for this require additional research. In this paper first a brief comparative overview of conceptual designs, data requirements, and models used in computer simulation of regional transport systems is provided. Then, the basic ingredients of a model system called Longitudinal Integrated Forecasting Environment (LIFE) that contains a demographic simulator, a daily time allocation and travel scheduling system, and a Geographic Information System are also presented. One component of this model system emphasizing the spatial and temporal dimensions of travel demand is described in more detail together with its validation using observed traffic data. The paper concludes with a summary and a few directions for model improvements. CITATION: Kuhnau, J. L., and K. G. Goulias. "Centre SIM: Hour-by-hour travel demand forecasting for mobile source emission estimation." In Development and application of computer techniques to environmental studies, pp. 257-266. WIT Press, 2002. 1 MOBILE SOURCE EMISSIONS MODELING Transportation is responsible for a large portion of the air pollution emanating from fuel combustion causing morbidity, mortality, and ecosystem damage. In 1999, transportation emissions in the U.S. produced 78.6% of the total carbon monoxide (CO), of which 55.9% was contributed by highway vehicles. For the same year, transportation contributed 53.4% to the total nitrogen oxides (NOX) produced, more than half of which (35.1% of total NOX production) was due to highway vehicles. A little less than half (43.5%) of the volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions are from transportation with 29.6% of the total produced by highway vehicles. VOC with NOx combine in the atmosphere and with the help of sunlight form ground-level ozone, which is the primary component of smog. Transportation continues to contribute to lead production with 12.8% of its total production in 1998, in spite of its spectacular decline since the introduction of unleaded gasoline worldwide (in 1970 transportation was contributing 82.3% of lead). Transportation’s share of emissions is smaller for particulate matter, either solid or liquid, of 10 micrometers (2.1%) and 2.5 micrometers (7.6%), SO2 (6.9%), and NH3 (5.4%). The legislative framework for safeguarding air quality and controlling emissions from transportation in the United States is supported by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970 (CAAA70), its additional amendments in 1990 (CAAA90), the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA), the more recent Transportation Equity Act for the 21 Century (TEA-21) and Titles 23, 40, and 49 of the U.S. Code and Code of Federal Regulations. CAAA90 and ISTEA introduced a different “philosophy” in dealing with air pollution from transportation sources. They both required an integration of transportation plans and investments with the goal of improving air quality. For example, they mandated the application of transportation control measures (TCMs – one example are strategies and actions to decrease the number of vehicles driven alone by promoting carpooling) with clear implementation schedules and goals. In addition, they introduced the process of conformity in plan development – in essence a detailed check on compatibility among transportation plans and programs with air quality attainment of specific standards. A similar process appears to be evolving in the UK as described in Beattie et al. [1] and the European Framework Directives of 1996 such as the “Auto Oil I Programme” (for a discussion see Fenger [2] ). The CAAA90 focused on technological improvements by mandating progressively tighter vehicle emission standards, cleaner fuels, and vehicle inspection and maintenance programs. New emission standards have been required for automobiles from model-year 1994 and new bus standards were also introduced. In 1997, NOx reduction standards were also introduced. Since air pollution is particularly acute in urban environments, it motivates many of the stipulations in CAAA90, which redefined the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) as maximum concentrations of pollutants that cannot be exceeded. In addition, it also gives authority to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to impose highway fund sanctions when non-compliance is found [3]. NAAQS specify maximum acceptable concentrations beyond which

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تاریخ انتشار 2013